The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2024 to 2030 and then plateau around 105.5 mb/d by 2030. It also flags that electric vehicles are set to displace 5.4 mb/d of global oil demand by 2030. This includes more than 5 mb/d of gasoline and diesel consumption displaced by EV use over the decade.

In the US, EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects motor gasoline consumption averaging 8.84 million barrels/day in 2026 and shows regular retail gasoline easing to an annual average of USD 2.91/gal in 2026.

Further, India’s gasoline use increased 41.7% (+310 kb/d) between 2019 and 2024, even as advanced economies see structural demand headwinds from efficiency and electrification.

For the EU demand mix, Eurostat reports that road transport energy consumption was still dominated by liquid fuels in 2023 – diesel oil 64% and gasoline 26%. Renewable energy only reached 7%, and electricity 0.5%.

Where the Market Is Headed

The utilization context that makes gasoline supply “feel” tight is visible in the EIA’s historical benchmark. 2024’s annual average refinery utilization was 90.5%, after 90.4% in 2023 and 91.8% in 2022.

This illustrates that post-pandemic operations have normalized at high run rates rather than rebuilding large spare capacity buffers.

On demand, EIA’s STEO projects US motor gasoline consumption at 8.84 mb/d (2026) and 8.80 mb/d (2027), while fuel ethanol production is shown at 1.08 mb/d (2026) and 1.07 mb/d (2027). These numbers quantify how blending components scale even as gasoline demand trends slightly down.

Our database tracks approximately 7.2K companies, including 575+ startups. Over the last year, the industry recorded a -1.43% growth rate.

From a workforce perspective, the gasoline sector employs more than 1.5 million professionals globally, with 110+ new employees added in the last year.

It is expected to increase from USD 1.5 trillion in 2025 to USD 1.85 trillion by 2030.

 

 

Five Startup Plays from a 575+ Pipeline

Woodland Biomass Innovations – Biomass to Drop-in Gasoline

US-based startup Woodland Biomass Innovations develops sustainable gasoline using a biomass-to-fuel process. It converts low-grade woody biomass into carbon-neutral, drop-in sustainable vehicle fuels.

The startup processes dirty wood chips through a refining pathway that produces gasoline chemically identical to fossil fuel gasoline. As a result, the fuel blends with refinery gasoline, integrates into crude oil logistics, and is distributed through existing fuel infrastructure. It does not require modifications to vehicles, pumps, or refueling systems.

Moreover, the process generates biochar as a co-product, which supports carbon sequestration and improves the overall environmental footprint of the system.

Emglobal – Gasoline Vapor Recovery

South Korean startup Emglobal builds GASminer, a stage-3 vapor recovery unit designed for retail fuel stations. It captures gasoline vapors released during tanker unloading and converts them into recoverable fuel.

The unit connects to station vent lines and operates during unloading events, where it collects volatile organic compounds and condenses them into liquid gasoline. This way, GASminer offers measurable fuel recovery, reduces volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions, and enables environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting.

Also, the startup supports deployment through a zero-capital expenditure rental model, standardized installation, and scalable operations and maintenance packages validated under hot and high-traffic conditions.

Fuel Solutions Ferox – Combustion Catalyst Additive

Dutch startup Fuel Solutions Ferox offers Ferox Fuel Tabs, a combustion catalyst additive and fuel stabilizer that improves gasoline combustion efficiency without altering fuel chemistry.

The additive introduces organometallic catalysts that modify the activation energy of fuel molecules. This enables more complete combustion at lower temperatures while simultaneously removing and preventing carbon deposits within the engine.

The process increases energy extraction per fuel droplet, reduces unburned fuel, stabilizes fuel quality through antioxidant action, and lowers exhaust emissions. Moreover, it also extends component cleanliness and service intervals.

Additionally, improved exhaust gas quality leads to reduced exhaust fluid consumption through automatic engine regulation. It reinforces operational efficiency without operator intervention.

Isar Pyrolysis – Plastic to Fuel Conversion

German startup Isar Pyrolysis builds a modular pyrolysis system that utilizes thermal processing without oxygen to convert shredded plastic waste into gasoline.

The system operates as a compact reactor that heats mixed plastic waste to break long hydrocarbon chains into oil, gas, and carbon fractions. It runs independently of external infrastructure by using solar power, battery storage, and process by-products for energy needs.

As a result, it enables mobile, decentralized deployment in remote, inland, or maritime locations, including ocean-cleaning vessels. Likewise, it allows on-site operation, maintenance, and repair with low technical complexity.

Plasma Dynamics – Plasma-based Petrochemical Gasification

Italian startup Plasma Dynamics develops plasma-based waste treatment and fuel production systems. For this, the startup utilizes microwave plasma gasification and plasma cracking to process petrochemical wastes and hazardous oil and gas residues into usable energy products.

The startup applies high-temperature plasma in the absence of combustion to decompose petroleum sludge, heavy oils, tar, coke, and other carbon-containing wastes. This is followed by fractionation and cracking to produce gasoline while eliminating the formation of hazardous by-products such as dioxins, furans, and nitrogen oxides.

Innovation Under Pressure

Discover the emerging trends in the gasoline market along with their firmographic details:

 

 

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

SAF emerges as the most dynamic growth segment within the gasoline-adjacent ecosystem. Our database identifies around 1100 companies operating in this space, employing approximately 413 000 professionals worldwide.

Over the last year, the segment added 55+ new employees. With an annual growth rate of 3.82%, SAF stands out as a transition-oriented opportunity, where traditional fuel expertise converges with biofuels, synthetic fuels, and refinery retrofitting.

Renewable Fuels

Renewable fuels represent a broader but slower-growing segment. This segment encompasses biofuels, blended fuels, and alternative hydrocarbon substitutes compatible with existing infrastructure.

It includes approximately 1900 companies in this category, supported by a workforce of around 255 600 employees. The segment added 55+ new employees in the last year.

The annual growth rate of 1.75% reflects incremental adoption rather than acceleration. This suggests that renewable fuels are transitioning from innovation-led development toward operational optimization and regulatory-driven deployment.

Fuel Additives

Fuel additives remain a large but contracting segment within the gasoline industry. Approximately 1700 companies operate in this domain, employing around 198 600 professionals globally. Workforce expansion has slowed, with only 30+ new employees added in the last year.

The negative annual growth rate of -1.69% indicates declining momentum. It is likely driven by fuel standardization, tighter emissions regulations, and reduced reliance on performance-enhancing chemical formulations.

Innovation in this segment is focused on compliance, emissions reduction, and marginal efficiency gains rather than volume-driven growth.

Investment Reality Check

IEA highlights how “energy security” capex is being used to defend gasoline supply. Mexico is planning to invest close to USD 8 billion across its six refineries to stabilize output and reduce reliance on imported fuels.

This is an example of how state-backed downstream investment logic and demand remain resilient.

For M&A and asset rotation in downstream hubs, Shell completed the sale of its Singapore refinery and refining assets to a Chandra Asri-Glencore joint venture.

The site imported around 1.5 million metric tons per year of naphtha in 2023 and 2024 and underscores how integrated refining-chemicals complexes are being repositioned and recapitalized.

Policy-driven blending mandates are a direct investment signal for gasoline-adjacent infrastructure.

Investment patterns in the gasoline industry indicate a highly mature and capital-intensive market. The average investment value reaches USD 254.2 million per round. It reflects the sector’s infrastructure-heavy nature and the prevalence of later-stage, asset-backed, and expansion-focused transactions rather than early-stage venture rounds.

More than 1000 investors have participated in the gasoline ecosystem. They have closed over 1200 funding rounds across more than 540 companies.

The combined value invested by top investors exceeds USD 17.5 billion, showing concentrated capital deployment across major gasoline innovators.

Data Inputs and Filtering

This Gasoline Market Report 2026 draws on the StartUs Insights Discovery Platform to map 9M+ companies, 25K+ technologies and trends, and 190M+ patents, news articles, and market reports. The scope focuses on the parts of the stack where constraint and performance actually show up – crude-to-products conversion, blending economics, terminal and pipeline logistics, retail price formation, and more.

The analysis also tracks demand normalization and substitution, refining system tightness, and policy/regulatory complexity. For leaders and innovation managers, the actionable question is no longer how fast gasoline grows, but where margin resilience is engineered.