The International Air Transport Association estimates that global SAF production reached 1.5 million metric tons in 2024, covering just 0.53% of aviation fuel demand.

However, net-zero pathways imply output of about 400 million tons by 2050.

Electro-fuels further hinge on hydrogen scale-up. The global electrolyzer manufacturing capacity reached around 25 GW by the end of 2023, with installed capacity exceeding 1.4 GW.

The sector sits at a structural inflection point where decarbonization mandates EU SAF blending requirements and rising carbon pricing. Net-zero commitments collide with growing passenger traffic, defense expansion, and cargo demand.

At the same time, SAF costs remain 3-4x higher than conventional jet fuel, and supply remains constrained.

Technology advancements provide insights into how the sector adapts to these limitations.

Innovation Signals Across the Ecosystem

Patent and R&D activity in aviation fuels is concentrated around synthetic fuels, hydrogen, and refinery process optimization. The yearly patent growth in this segment stands at 5.42%. This steady innovation momentum is focused on improving refinery flexibility and output efficiency.

Refining Optimization and Yield Improvement

Refinery runs are driven mainly by gasoline and diesel demand, with jet fuel produced as part of the overall middle-distillate slate. Advanced refineries use additional conversion processes beyond simple distillation to process carbon chains above C20.

This increases the share of higher-value products such as aviation fuel when economics justify it. For instance, Marathon Petroleum is investing about USD 200 million between 2025 and 2026 to boost jet capacity at its 253 000 barrels-per-day Robinson refinery.

Synthetic Fuels and E-Fuels

Global SAF production in 2024 was expected to triple from 2023 to about 1.5 million metric tons, but this still covered only 0.53% of aviation’s total fuel needs. Also, 6% of available renewable fuel capacity is used, as most capacity serves other fuels.

If all announced projects proceed, SAF capacity could reach about 35.1 million metric tons per year by 2030.

Synthetic jet fuel (a key part of SAF) is one of the fastest-growing segments in the synthetic fuels market. It is expected to grow at 16.3% CAGR from 2025 to 2033 as airlines pursue net-zero targets.

Power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels produced from renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and captured CO2 are certified as drop-in aviation fuels. Their main attraction is compatibility with existing aircraft and fuel infrastructure.

The e-fuels market overall is expected to add about USD 26.73 billion in value between 2024 and 2029, growing at a 33.1% CAGR. Aviation highlights it as a key demand driver because liquid e-fuels can substitute for fossil jets without major hardware changes.

Hydrogen and Electric Aviation

Hydrogen-powered aviation is expected to develop slowly. However, it is expected to become the primary aviation fuel closer to 2070 if infrastructure and aircraft technology mature as expected.

The entire value chain for liquid green hydrogen, from production, liquefaction, storage, and transport, still needs to be built. The current hydrogen aircraft are at a small-scale demonstration stage rather than commercial long-haul operations.

Moreover, the electricity demand for hydrogen production will increase national power consumption by 2050.

Digital Fuel Management and Analytics

AI and advanced analytics are used in refining and fuel supply chains to optimize jet fuel production and logistics. AI algorithms analyze large data streams from refinery sensors to improve process control, increase yields, and cut energy use. This lowers the production cost of jet fuel and improves profitability.

In the broader e-fuels and SAF value chain, digital tools also support life-cycle assessment and certification. It tracks feedstocks, energy inputs, and emissions, which is important as regulators and airlines demand verifiable carbon data for aviation fuels.

Carbon Capture Integration with Fuel Production

Power-to-liquid synthetic aviation fuels rely directly on captured CO2 combined with green hydrogen. They embed carbon capture into the fuel production process.

PtL and Fischer-Tropsch routes convert renewable electricity, water, and captured CO2 into liquid hydrocarbons that are refined or blended into jet fuel. This provides both an energy carrier and a carbon-reuse pathway.

Future electrolyser-based hydrogen is directed into synthetic fuels for aviation, linking large-scale carbon capture and hydrogen deployment to aviation fuel supply.

 

 

5 Startups Advancing Aviation Fuel Technologies

sustaero – Syngas-to-SAF

Canadian startup sustaero develops a scalable SAF platform that converts sustainable cellulosic biomass into ASTM-certified SAF. For this, it utilizes its proprietary Syngas Optimization for Aviation Renewables (SOAR) process.

The startup gasifies biomass into syngas, optimizes the gas composition, applies Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, and upgrades the output into drop-in jet fuel. This fuel meets ASTM D7566 specifications and integrates with existing aviation fuel infrastructure.

Aether Fuels – Waste Carbon to Liquid Fuel

US-based startup Aether Fuels builds Aether Aurora, a gas-to-liquid technology process that converts diverse sustainable carbon feedstocks into fully upgraded liquid fuels such as SAF, sustainable diesel, and sustainable naphtha.

The process accepts feedstocks that are converted into CO, CO2, CH4, and H2, generates and optimizes syngas through an electrified thermochemical reactor. Further, it applies Fischer-Tropsch conversion and upgrades the output using intensified catalytic stages with recycle loops to maximize carbon utilization and yield.

With process intensification and catalysts, the startup reduces equipment count, lowers capital expenditure, improves energy efficiency, and enables smaller, modular plant configurations suited to distributed feedstock availability.

Hydrogen Refinery – Plasma Waste to Fuels

UK-based startup Hydrogen Refinery offers a plasma electrolysis system (PES) that converts hydrocarbon waste into carbon-negative e-fuels, sustainable aviation fuel feedstock, and e-fertilizer inputs.

The system uses low-energy microwave radiation to generate a controlled cold plasma swirl at approximately 2500 degrees Celsius. This energizes electrons within the feedstock, cracks hydrocarbon bonds, and separates the material into molecular hydrogen or syngas while isolating carbon as solid soot.

Through real-time AI control of electrodes, the plasma environment adjusts to mixed and variable waste streams without catalysts, membranes, water, or natural gas. It enables direct processing of gaseous, liquid, and solid ground wastes.

Carbon Iceland – Captured Carbon Fuel

Iceland-based startup Carbon Iceland builds eMethanol production facilities that convert captured industrial CO2 and carbon-free hydrogen into renewable fuels.

The startup captures CO2 from Icelandic smelters and other industrial sources, combines it with hydrogen produced via electrolysis, and synthesizes methanol through an integrated fuel production process.

Through this carbon recycling pathway, it supplies drop-in renewable fuels for maritime shipping, aviation, and heavy transport without requiring full engine replacement across existing fleets.

Power Plant Energy – Bamboo Biomass Biorefinery

Australian startup Power Plant Energy builds a biorefinery platform that converts renewable bamboo biomass into ultra-high-purity graphite, sustainable aviation fuel, and hydrogen. The startup cultivates bamboo to sequester atmospheric carbon.

Then, it fractionates the biomass into cellulose, lignin, and extractives with high recovery efficiency. Further, it applies high-temperature pyrolysis and graphitization to transform cellulose into battery-grade graphite while generating renewable fuels and hydrogen as co-products.

With AI-powered controls, solvent recovery systems, and integrated thermal and energy recovery design, the platform reduces energy use, eliminates tailings waste, and maximizes material utilization within a zero-waste circular framework.

Supply Chain & Infrastructure Landscape

Jet Fuel Accounts

Jet fuel accounts for only about 9% of global refined product output. This makes it a relatively small cut compared with gasoline and diesel, even as demand grows.

In 2024, US refineries produced a record-high share of jet fuel as increased air travel supported higher jet yields, while gasoline’s share fell to its lowest level since 2015.

Airport Fuel Hydrant Systems

Airport fuel hydrant systems link inbound receiving lines, large (often underground) storage, and distribution pipelines. They deliver fuel directly to aircraft to enable high-throughput and safer operations on the apron.

The global market for these systems is driven by the modernization of airports, tighter environmental rules on spills and emissions, and growth in low-cost carriers. The non-primary airports in emerging economies are seen as a significant opportunity for new and upgraded infrastructure.

Logistics, Blending, and Certification Challenges

Jet fuel must meet standards such as ASTM D1655 and often DEF STAN 91-091. It should remain compliant as it moves through pipelines, terminals, tank farms, and airport hydrant systems, with checks at each custody transfer.

Operators use documented quality-control steps, like certificates of quality and analysis, density and visual checks, particulate and water tests, and periodic re-inspection, to detect contamination or degradation. Each batch is traceable via unique identifiers and supporting records (batch files, transfer and release documents, and into-plane receipts).

Role of Fuel Distributors and Airport Operators

Fuel distributors and airport operators jointly manage underground pipelines, storage tanks, dispensing units, and monitoring systems within airport hydrant networks.

Modern systems use automation, remote monitoring, and internet of things (IoT)-based sensors. North America focused on upgrading legacy infrastructure, and Asia-Pacific invested in new systems.

Aviation Fuel Economies

In 2024 alone, global aviation is estimated to have consumed about 107 billion gallons of jet fuel and emitted around 1.24 billion tons of CO2 equivalent. This underscores the sector’s high carbon intensity relative to its share of global transport activity.

Jet fuel prices eased in 2025, in line with the broader downturn in the oil market. Brent crude fell 14.5% year-on-year between January and October, dropping into the low USD 60s per barrel by June 2025.

This pulled average jet fuel prices down to USD 89 per barrel in the first half of 2025 versus USD 106 in early 2024. For the full year 2025, jet fuel is on track to average about USD 90 per barrel, a 9% year-on-year decline.

Fuel Cost as % of Airline Operating Expenses

Fuel is the single largest operating cost line for airlines and remains highly sensitive to price swings. In 2024, IATA estimates that fuel represented around 30% of airlines’ total costs globally.

For 2025, IATA projects an industry fuel bill of USD 236 billion on average jet prices of USD 86 per barrel. Fuel accounts for 25.8% of total airline operating costs (down from USD 261 billion and about 29% in 2024).

Refining Economics and Crack Spreads

Refining margins (crack spreads) for jet fuel have increased since 2022, as constrained middle-distillate capacity and disruptions such as reduced Russian refining output tightened supply.

The jet fuel prices rose to about 40% above Brent on average in 2022. By 2026, jet fuel will average USD 88 per barrel against Brent at USD 62 per barrel. This implies a crack spread of about USD 26 per barrel (roughly 42% of the Brent price).

Scope and Market Definition

This aviation fuel outlook draws on intelligence from the StartUs Insights Discovery Platform, evaluating 9M+ companies, 25K+ technologies and trends, and over 190M+ patents, news articles, and market reports. It treats aviation fuel as a carbon-intensive system undergoing structural reconfiguration across feedstock sourcing, conversion technologies, certification pathways, distribution logistics, and airline procurement strategies.

Innovation spans biomass conversion, synthetic electro-fuels, hydrogen-derived fuels, and refinery retrofits to accommodate lower-emission blends. Strategic positioning depends on lifecycle emissions accounting, policy alignment, and supply-chain integration.