Oil and Gas Market: Key Takeaways

IEA’s latest market monitoring indicates that global refinery crude throughputs are forecast to average 84.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, with +770 kb/d annual growth – slower than 2025’s +930 kb/d pace. This signals that 2026 profitability is likely to be driven as much by product cracks and utilization discipline as by headline demand.

On the capital side, IEA’s World Energy Investment 2025 benchmark projects total energy investment reaching USD 3.3 trillion in 2025, while oil, natural gas, and coal combined account for about USD 1.1 trillion. This is a useful macro ceiling for oil & gas capital allocation decisions as electrification and grids absorb a rising share of global investment appetite.

For operational decarbonization, the energy sector emitted about 145 Mt of methane in 2024. This includes roughly 45 Mt from oil operations and nearly 35 Mt from natural gas operations. This quantifies why methane measurement, LDAR, and equipment replacement are now among the highest-ROI interventions across upstream portfolios.

Market Trajectory: USD 8T by 2032

Demand-side outlooks are converging on continued growth. The US EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook states global liquid fuels consumption rose ~1.2 million b/d in 2025 and is forecast to rise by ~1.1 million b/d in 2026. This frames 2026 as a growth, but not a step-change year where efficiency and cost position matter.

OPEC’s latest market assessment keeps the 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at ~1.4 mb/d year-on-year. In turn, this underscores that most incremental volume still comes from non-OECD markets – an important setup for downstream product strategy and trading exposure into Asia-led demand.

IEA’s market reporting also flags the supply-side pressure shaping 2026 balances. Global oil supply is on track to rise by ~2.4 mb/d in 2026 (after ~3.0 mb/d in 2025). This implies that price and margin outcomes will be increasingly sensitive to OPEC + policy and non-OPEC + responsiveness rather than pure demand growth.

Our database tracks 203.3K companies active across upstream, midstream, downstream, and services segments, which includes 5280 startups.

From a growth perspective, the sector recorded a yearly industry growth rate of -0.61%. It indicates a slight contraction and reflects structural pressures from energy transition policies, capital discipline, and shifting long-term demand expectations.

Geographically, the USA, India, Canada, the UK, and the UAE emerge as the leading country hubs.

The global oil and gas industry is expected to increase from USD 6.2 trillion in 2025 to USD 8 trillion by 2032 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% from 2025 to 2032.

 

 

Within this, upstream activities dominated the oil & gas market in 2024 by accounting for 44.47% of total volume. Similarly, midstream and downstream segments followed with 25.32% and 30.21%, respectively.

The Global CCS Institute’s Global Status of CCS 2025 notes 77 commercial CCS projects in operation with 64 Mtpa capture capacity, while the overall pipeline is 734 projects representing ~513 Mtpa. This is a concrete capacity reality check for operators weighing capture hubs, CO₂ transport, and storage access.

 

 

Innovation in Practice: 5 Selected Startups

CYTOK – Power to Gas Technology

German startup CYTOK develops a power-to-gas energy technology that converts renewable electricity into synthetic natural gas compatible with existing oil and gas infrastructure.

It utilizes electrolysis to convert surplus renewable electricity into hydrogen. It then applies methanization to combine hydrogen with captured CO2 to produce synthetic methane that enters conventional natural gas storage, pipelines, and combustion systems.

The process incorporates a modified oxyfuel combustion system that burns synthetic natural gas with oxygen instead of air. This enables a closed CO2 cycle where emissions remain captured and reused through carbon capture and utilization.

Capture Energy – Air Compressor System

US-based startup Capture Energy offers oil and gas field equipment to eliminate methane emissions. Its Capture Compressor captures trapped gas energy at discharge points and converts it into compressed air, electricity, and linear actuation. This powers pneumatic valves and instrumentation without external electricity, batteries, or standalone air compressors.

In parallel, the startup’s capture control valve includes the CCV-D plunger control valve and the CCV-B auto catch. It uses pressure exchange to regulate plunger well operations, manage downstream pressure, and control open and close cycles without transducers or grid power.

Coodex – AI-powered Commissioning Solutions

Brazilian startup Coodex provides Meris, an AI-powered commissioning and data management platform that automates engineering, procurement, and construction workflows in the oil and gas industry. It deploys vertical AI agents to analyze engineering data, generate requests for proposals (RFPs), validate commissioning tests, manage completion certificates, and ensure data consistency.

The platform also integrates software-as-a-service (SaaS)-based workflow management with enterprise data foundations to execute large-scale test validation and eliminate manual certificate processing. It reduces input-related errors in complex infrastructure environments.

INTELLIGENT CORE – AI-powered Operations Optimization

UK-based startup INTELLIGENT CORE builds an AI-powered optimization platform for upstream and midstream oil and gas operations. The platform enables predictive, connected, and autonomous decision-making across the field.

It ingests real-time telemetry, operational data, and aerial inputs into a hybrid AI stack. This stack includes CORE Horizon for upstream execution intelligence and CORE Flow for midstream performance intelligence. Predictive models analyze field conditions, anticipate operational shifts, and trigger automated or human-in-the-loop actions.

The platform integrates drone-enabled AI to automate inspections and detect corrosion, leaks, methane emissions, and anomalies. It then feeds live data into scheduling, dispatch, and control workflows across pipelines, pads, tanks, and terminals.

Additionally, INTELLIGENT CORE unifies predictive scheduling and autonomous task execution. It applies pressure-volume optimization, anomaly detection, and intelligent chain-of-custody tracking to improve coordination across teams, assets, and lifecycle phases.

Compute Everything – Finite Temperature Impurity Solvers

Canadian startup Compute Everything offers finite temperature impurity solvers. These solvers generate exact, physics-based simulations of molecular and material behavior for oil and gas modeling. They apply proprietary quantum algorithms implemented through tensor-accelerated classical compute methods.

In this approach, tensor network techniques run graphics processing unit (GPU)-optimized tensor operations and scalable parallel processing to resolve temperature-dependent quantum states, many-body correlation effects, and real-time dynamics under realistic conditions.

Additionally, the company delivers IP-secure double-blind computing. This capability protects customer data and algorithms while enabling enterprise deployment of quantum-accurate simulations and dataset generation.

Trend Signalboard: SAFs, Electrification, Carbon Capture

From an intellectual property perspective, oil and gas companies hold approximately 1.6 million patents, filed by around 375.2K applicants. This broad applicant base underscores the industry’s emphasis on engineering innovation, process optimization, and equipment development across the value chain.

At the same time, yearly patent growth declined by 0.35%. China leads with 478 215+ patents, followed by the USA with 325 645 patents.

Discover the emerging trends in the oil & gas market along with their firmographic details:

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

The SAF industry is driven by regulatory mandates, airline decarbonization targets, and limited near-term alternatives for long-haul aviation. It comprises 1070+ companies and employs approximately 281 900 people worldwide. It also added 40+ new employees in the last year.

Moreover, the annual growth rate of 395% shows its transition from pilot projects to early commercial deployment. Traditional oil & gas organizations play a central role by leveraging existing refining infrastructure, feedstock logistics, and fuel distribution networks, and position SAF as a bridge between conventional hydrocarbons and lower-carbon fuels.

Electrification

Electrification represents a large-scale but slow-growing trend within the oil & gas sector. It includes 7730+ companies with a workforce of approximately 1.2 million employees. Over the past year, about 210 new employees were added.

The annual growth rate of 2.07% reflects the maturity of electrification technologies and their broad adoption in multiple industries.

Within oil and gas, electrification focuses on reducing operational emissions through electrified drilling rigs, compressors, pumps, and offshore platforms, as well as integrating renewable power and grid connections.

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

CCS remains a strategically important but gradually expanding domain. It comprises 2200 companies employing approximately 486 400 people, with 123 new employees added in the last year.

The annual growth rate of 2.39% shows its steady development driven by policy support, carbon pricing mechanisms, and net-zero commitments.

Oil & gas companies play an important role in CCS due to their expertise in subsurface geology, reservoir management, and large-scale infrastructure deployment. Applications include point-source emissions capture from refineries and processing plants, as well as broader carbon management hubs.

Following the Money: IEA’s 2025 Oil ($535B) and Gas ($365B) Investment Signals

IEA’s World Energy Investment 2025 indicates upstream oil investment is forecast at ~USD 535 billion in 2025, and investment in natural gas production at ~USD 365 billion in 2025. This is a direct benchmark for evaluating whether corporate budgets and venture allocations are tracking with the broader capex cycle.

Large-scale consolidation continues to reset competitive intensity. For instance, Exxon Mobil completed its purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources for about USD 60 billion after US FTC clearance. This is an example of how operators are buying inventory depth and scale rather than underwriting exploration risk at the margin.

Further, more than 90 bcm per year of LNG liquefaction capacity reached final investment decision (FID) in 2025, and the United States accounted for over 80 bcm. This is a strong indicator that LNG portfolio competition and long-term contracting will keep intensifying through 2026-2030.

Service and project awards also show where execution capacity is being committed. SLB won a USD 1.5 billion, five-year contract from Kuwait Oil Company for the next phase of Mutriba field development. This move highlights ongoing investment into complex reservoirs where specialized subsurface and production management capabilities are decisive.

Investment activity in the oil & gas sector reflects its large scale, capital intensity, and structural maturity. The average investment value per round in the industry stands at USD 144.3 million.

 

 

The industry attracts a broad investor base, with more than 25 420+ investors participating in the market. More than 45.3K funding rounds have been closed, while supporting over 16 940 companies across the value chain.

The combined value invested by top investors exceeds USD 103.2 billion. This shows concentrated capital deployment across major oil and gas innovators.

Scope and Market Definition

This Oil & Gas industry report 2026 uses the StartUs Insights Discovery Platform to continuously track 9M+ companies, 25K+ technologies and industrial trends, and 190M+ patents, news articles, and market reports. The analysis dissects where global investment is expanding, but capital discipline, emissions intensity, and operational efficiency are under tighter scrutiny.

Using five years of longitudinal data, the report connects macro indicators – like multi-trillion-dollar market projections and sustained upstream capex – to micro-level execution signals, including technology adoption, startup formation, and workforce reallocation. For decision-makers, the implication is clear – 2026 is less about chasing growth narratives and more about selecting technologies and partners that can deliver measurable performance, compliance, and cost outcomes within a structurally capital-intensive industry.